Obama’s greatest challenge

One would believe that dealing with an ever-growing deficit, the Occupy Wall Street movement, economic issues with China and Europe and countless jobless Americans, Barack Obama would have his hands full. Yet, Obama's greatest challenge lies ahead of him with Israel's upcoming invasion of Iran.

There are many indications that a war with Iran is imminent for Israel, beginning with former Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan. In September 2010, Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency and warned of Israel's coming invasion of Iran by Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and stated that it would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine.

So, why should we give weight to what this ex-mossad chief has to say? First and foremost, generally, whether in or out of office, these officials do not openly criticize their leadership, and Dagan is not alone in his criticism. So this is highly out of the ordinary. Furthermore, last Wednesday, Nov. 2, Israel tested its long-range ballistic missiles for the first time in three years, which was concurrent with a U.S. congressional committee passing two sweeping diplomatic and economic sanctions against the Iranian government. Finally, the recent foiled plot against Saudi Arabian ambassador Adel al-Jubeir is another piece of the puzzle in indications that a war with Iran is just around the corner.

So, how does the recent Iranian "plot" against the Saudi ambassador play into this narrative? On Oct. 11, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder revealed to the world the details of this assassination plot that would have taken place on U.S. soil. As Jim Lobe addressed in his article in the Inter Press Service News Agency, this "plot" was perfectly summarized by a question posed by CNN's Reza Sayyah: "Did an elite branch of Iran's military handpick a divorced, 56-year-old Iranian-American used-car salesman from Texas to hire a hitman from a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate the ambassador to Saudi Arabia by blowing up a bomb in a crowded restaurant in Washington?"

Now if this sounds like somewhat of an improbable plot, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was quoted as telling the AP that "The idea that they would attempt to go to a Mexican drug cartel to solicit murder for hire to kill the Saudi ambassador, nobody could make that up, right?" While the Iranian government is claiming this "plot" is a complete fabrication — although it may sound like somewhat of a stretch by Iran — it is not a far one by any means.

Moreover, this "plot" against the Saudi ambassador could be viewed as the next catalyst for U.S. involvement in a war with Iran in support of Israel, even if it later turns out that the "plot" was "false intelligence," like that of Saddam's WMDs. Thus, as Lobe observes, the war drums have begun to be beat by those such as Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Republican chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who stated, "The multifaceted threat posed by Iran becomes more severe with each passing day." Even though Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess Jr., director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, addressed the Iranian "threat" that exists against the U.S., noting that "Iran's military spending is relatively low compared to the rest of the region," and they have only "a limited capability to project force beyond its borders."

So why will this be Obama's greatest challenge in office? It is clear what would happen if Netanyahu decided to begin bombing Iranian nuclear facilities tomorrow. Our congressmen and women, along with our senators, would forget all of our partisan differences and rush to support Israel. This, of course, is due to the influences of AIPAC, the Israeli lobby in the U.S., and how they shape our foreign policy in the Middle East. As Robert Baer, a longtime CIA officer who spent 21 years in the Middle East, said, a war with Iran would "endanger countless Americans (in the region and here at home, too). It would kill off any economic recovery by causing oil prices to skyrocket. It would engulf us in another Middle East war. And it would threaten the existence of the state of Israel."

Thus, Obama's greatest challenge will be his decision on whether or not to support Israel's war with Iran, as any war will have major repercussions at home and in the region and is likely to become, as Dagan puts it, "the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."