War in Korea unlikely

Suddenly we are transported back to the 1950s. The recent aggressive activity by North Korea, the last real remnant of the Cold War, has once again put the U.S. and Asia on the brink of war. While the North has always  taken grandiose actions in an attempt to gain attention, the last six months have truly been deadly. First, there was the sinking of the South Korean warship by a North Korean torpedo. Now there is the shelling on Yeonpyeong by North Korea resulting in the death of two civilians. Seoul demands vengeance. The U.S. conducts war games. Americans prepare themselves for war in Korea. Before you make that tin foil hat to protect you from the nuclear radiation, you have to first see if war with North Korea will actually happen. Beyond the black and white situation of responding to North Korean aggression is a complex world of Asian politics, particularly involving the U.S. and China. At the end of the day, while I still believe we are not going to war with North Korea, we are getting close.

North Korea has always been an enigma. Described as a Stalinist regime, given its cult-like reverence for its leaders, this isolated country is known for having a huge bark. Since the 1990s, North Korea has leveraged its nuclear weapons against the world in exchange for an erratic list of demands. People often view the North as dangerous and unstable, both of which are very true if you look at its behavior at face value. However, beneath everything North Korea has ever done, there has been one all-consuming goal: survival. The regime will do and say anything that will ensure its continued hold on power. North Korea would pretty much lose that hold if it went to war. Despite its numbers in the military, it cannot keep up with the well-fed and technologically superior South. Even its nuclear arsenal can be neutralized by the tactical strikes of the U.S. Air Force. Even in its grandest delusion, North Korea knows that a war with the U.S. will end in disaster for it. Based on that, I believe that the latest aggression is another act of desperation to be important on the global stage.

At the same time, the U.S. isn't exactly rushing to go to war. The war games conducted last week are an important act to show the world that the U.S. and South Korea won't be bullied by the North. The reality is any war effort will most likely be hamstrung from the start. There is, of course, the obvious fact that most of the troops are still dedicated in Iraq and Afghanistan. With the current economic recession and large budget deficits, we may not want to plug another huge chunk of money in another invasion. Instead, we are more likely to seek a diplomatic solution to the situation before it gets out of hand. In the end, whatever we end up doing, South Korea will most likely follow.

The wild card is China: What will it do? It has been the guardian of North Korea since the 1950s. However, its role in the world is a lot more complicated today than it was 60 years ago. Today, China has as much at stake in the U.S. as it does in North Korea. Yet China has used North Korea to manufacture power in Asian politics. In this situation, it has a choice to either support the United States or support North Korea. Whichever side China chooses may very well decide whether the second Korean War will happen.

The Korean situation is neither pretty nor simple. While the uptick in aggression by both sides is something to worry about, the most likely scenario is this will de-escalate before war is started. However, just because it's the most likely doesn't mean it will actually happen. If the right factors line up, then we will have a second Korean War. I just hope we don't ever get to that point.